War on Dumb: America’s Political Intervention
War on Dumb: Alabama Exceptionalism
War on Dumb: Presidential Picker
Obama for President: A Choice Towards Greatness
The FIRST Electoral College Scoreboard
And the LAST Electoral College Scoreboard
Objects are Closer Than They Appear
Hello from the Intercontinental Hotel in downtown Chicago, Illinois, where Kyle Whitmire and I are waiting on Obama’s election night rally, the Party AND/OR Riot in Grant Park.
We made it up here from Birmingham in about 10 hours via car, and made some video along the way. We’ll have that up in a moment.
We visited the site of the Obama event early this morning, and some folks (mostly young people, white, black, latino, asian, male, female…) were already lining up. There are 68,000 ticketed visitors, like Kyle and I, and thousands more will fill into an overflow area. Still more are expected in the general area–Mayor Daley said as many as 1,000,000 (that was early this week) and a city official quoted in the Chicago Sun-Times this morning said 500,000. It will be awesome.
Bill Richardson shaved his beard. What does this bode for the future?
Polls close in just moments. Maybe we’ll see some good exit polling.
Thanks to Birmingham Weekly for getting us here. Kyle and I look forward to posting more tonight, including video momentarily.
Today is the day that’s been 1,440 days in the making. Election Day 2008, here in Alabama and across the nation. The choice is yours between Barack Obama/Joe Biden and John McCain/Sarah Palin.
Below is everything you need to know about today’s vote, where to find the latest information, a little bit of history from this historic(ally long) campaign and some entertaining avenues to vent your election day jitters whilst you wait for the final tally to come in.
FIRST, here’s what you need to know about today’s vote in Alabama:
•The polls are open here from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. No one will be allowed to cast their vote after 7 p.m. unless they are already in line before the polls close.
•You must be registered to vote. To find out if you are registered (and where to cast your ballot) CLICK HERE. If there is a problem with your registration status, you may request a provisional ballot. After filling a provisional ballot, make sure to get instructions from a polling place official as to how to verify your identity later in the day.
•If you experience any problems while voting, please call this number: 1-800-274-8683. That’s the number for the office of the Alabama Secretary of State, Beth Chapman.
SECOND, who do I vote for:
•Birmingham Weekly has endorsed Barack Obama as the best choice for President. Read our writer’s endorsements below:
THIRD, what to watch for on election night:
How will you know who’s got the early advantage as the polls begin to close? What about the down-ballot races? Will the Democrats own 60 Senate seats? Find out by reading these expert guides, offering advice on what to watch for tonight.
•NBC’s Chuck Todd previews each state’s relevant races HERE
•538.com’s Nate Silver gives Newsweek the lowdown on hour-by-hour presidential handicapping HERE.
•And your’s truly worked awfully hard on these battleground state previews. Be sure to click on the thumbnails on the bottom of each posting.
FOURTH, what Web sites to visit for the most up-to-date information:
•Well, obviously, THIS ONE!
•Next, TIME’s political director and campaign vet, MARK HALPERIN and THE PAGE.
•Then, BEN SMITH and JONATHAN MARTIN at POLITICO.
•Don’t forget CHRIS CILLIZZA and THE FIX.
•Or the fantasitic writers at THE ATLANTIC: MARC AMBINDER and ANDREW SULLIVAN.
•Follow the real-time results here at CNN.
•Get the skinny on poll closings throughout the country HERE.
•And please visit our favorite electoral math Web site: 538!
FIFTH, how did we get to this point in the first place? Here are a few delightful recaps of the race to this point:
•First, profanity aside, this is the greatest recap of this election on the Web, HERE.
•Slate has several BRILLIANT vids recapping the DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION FIGHT and parts of the general election HERE, HERE, and HERE.
•Remember Mike Huckabee? YES YOU DO. (NSFW language)
•And how about that Mike Gravel? As Mark Kelly would say, “that crazy bastard!” THREE CLASSIC MUST-SEE VIDS: HERE, HERE and HERE. Remember, “you may be a lover, but you ain’t no dancer”.
SIXTH, need a mental health break during the election? Check out these entertaining pop culture/politics mash-ups:
Well, Canadian beer may suck, but their comedians are top shelf. 
Sebastien Trudel and Marc-Antoine Audette, a pair of Great White North radio misfits who have a penchant for prank calls, have worked their magic on Sarah Palin. The result, much like a quality episode of “Curb Your Enthusiasm”, is thoroughly entertaining and embarrassing at the same time.
If you didn’t get a chance to watch Obama’s 30-minute documercial, it’s here. 
Man, you’d have to have a thick hide not to empathize with the folks in Obama’s half-hour last night. The lady with the arthritic fingers who can’t pay for her drugs, her husband in his 70s who now works at Wal-Mart…I coughed all manly-like a number of times to clear the scratching creeping up my throat.
But I wasn’t the target of that video. Nor was affecting me the purpose of that $4-5 million dollar half-hour.
What do I think the target was? White, rural Americans. People who have heard a lot of the fear-tactics/racially-tinged crap coming from the McCain camp and the people attracted to (or settling for) McCain based on those things (and not policy or die-hard Republicaness). This Obamumentary was meant to show that Barack Obama is an American and a good one who is like you or understands people like you. Part of it was to counteract any possible “Bradley affect” (how many times did he seem surrounded only by white folks?) and another part was to answer McCain’s question:
“Who is Barack Obama?”
And he answered it without mentioning John McCain’s name. The entire 30 minutes, Obama never said “McCain”. Think about that. That was likely the most expensive single thing Obama’s campaign has done and it was totally positive, for an entire half-hour. McCain might say Obama’s spent more money than any candidate in US election history on negative ads, but he ignores the fact that Obama has probably (I don’t know where to confirm this) spent more than any candidate in US election history on positive ads as well.
What the Obamumentary will accomplish is controlling the narrative on TV for Thursday (which is a good thing for Obama after this week). It ended too late for most of the nightly news and even cable networks to really finish discussing it, and so the buzz tomorrow on CNN, MSNBC, and FOX is going to be “what did you think about the Obama informercial?” Reviews tonight comment a lot on the production value, and people on the blogs talk a lot about the cut from tape-to-live and how well it was executed. Someone on Yglesias commented that it reminded him of an ESPN documentary, and I agree (they always get you in the end). Whatever, that will be a 10-second conversation on the cable news. But people’s reactions and pundit’s reactions will carry the day. And then, the next day, it’s Friday, and who gives a crap about politics on Friday? That’s why corporations schedule lay-offs for Friday, and why people in the Bush administration resign on Fridays. Then there’s a weekend (college football, and generally a lot of stuff that doesn’t involve watching nightly news and cable news), and Monday, the Day Before The Election, when new polls are out.
It just might be a great move on Obama’s part.
And tomorrow, McCain will say what McCain has to say. I think there’s a good shot for him to slow the pro-Obama spin on this if he goes back to the “Celebrity”-ad mode of thinking. Call him “infomercial Obama,” say things like “If you think it’s too good to be true, it is.” It won’t stop the top, but it might throw it off-kilter, reassure his base, and remind voters about the “Celebrity” ad which struck a nerve with some folks.
But I think that Obama’s talk about positives (and almost no negatives, though there were some offhand comparisons) tonight may overcome all that. Chris Matthews, no fan of pretending to be balanced (though he is a protector and pusher of facts and truth, but he expresses some opinion for sure), seemed almost too taken with the Obamumentary to comment afterwards. I thought he might break down.
I flipped over to FOXNews, but they were talking about Ayers or some crap. So I went back to MSNBC.
I think that was a good move for me, and Obama’s $4-5 million ad-buy was a good move for him. The Obamumentary’s gross effect is yet to register. Tomorrow’s news coverage will reveal and dictate some of that, and polls 2 days from now will reveal more. On the net, he appeared positive, and definitely presidential, and likely inspired thousands to GET OUT THE VOTE for him.
By the way, if I get another gosh darn f*$#ing request from the Obama campaign to spend my weekend and election day in Florida, I’m seriously going to start campaigning for the other guy. Step off. Seriously. I’ve got shit to do this weekend, and I’m not getting on a bus that will take 12 hours to get to Miami and staying until Nov. 5.
Instead, I and columnist Kyle Whitmire are going to Chicago for November 4, election day. We’re going to Grant Park. We’re going to get press passes. And hopefully we’ll live blog on what it’s like at Obama ground zero (depending on the kind of internet access we’re able to get).
So stay tuned, folks.
And please, leave comments. And check out Shep Smith spitting some hard truth at “Joe” “the” “Plumber” about Obama’s position on Israel. It gave me hope for America. If Shep’s not careful, CNN might recruit him to split an hour with Campbell Brown, the breakout news personality of this election (unless you count Katie Couric nearly saving her career by asking Sarah Palin simple questions).
A note: Birmingham Weekly columnist Kyle Whitmire will appear on WBHM 90.3 FM at 4:30 pm. Also, Obama’s got 30 minutes tonight on CBS, NBC, and FOX, at 7:00. Also, check out Mark Kelly’s Electoral College Scoreboard and Matt Hooper’s Battleground: Virginia.
Republicans and conservatives flirted with comparing Obama’s policies to socialism before the “Joe the Plumber” moment. But after the Joe the Plumber question, in which Obama suggested that progressive taxation — when applied in a way that makes a bit more sense than the Bush tax cuts for the rich — would create more opportunity for poor people/most Americans, the Republicans pounced and ignored McCain statements like this:
“I cannot in good conscience support a tax cut in which so many of the benefits go to the most fortunate among us at the expense of middle class Americans who most need tax relief.”
And this:
McCain said that progressive tax systems are based on the fact that “we feel, obviously, that wealthy people can afford more.” He spelled out this response: “Here’s what I really believe, that when you are — reach a certain level of comfort, there’s nothing wrong with paying somewhat more.”
But that was the “old McCain,” so I guess it doesn’t apply.
The obvious criticism of me is to suggest that when Obama said he’d “spread the wealth” around, he meant it in the Robin Hood sense. That is, he would take money from the rich and give it directly to the poor. They base this on Obama’s tax plan which, in some cases, would cut checks to people who don’t even pay income taxes. “SOCIALISM” they cry. “COMMUNISM!” they yell (and one young girl acts like a monkey, right in front of her parents). They say it’s welfare. All the while, they conveniently ignore the fact that even when people don’t qualify for income taxes, they still pay a considerable portion of their income to payroll taxes. Social security and Medicare and all that. And did I mention that even millionaires get social security checks? I just want to mention that.
You know who else was a socialist? Ronald Reagan. See the Earned Income Tax Credit.
Now let’s talk about socialism. Socialism, in the older sense, involves the government/people controlling the means of production. Now, I don’t know what “industry” the Right might suggest that Obama wants to socialize. Certainly not the banks–the Republicans have already taken care of that. Health care? Well, his plan pools together private insurance companies to provide health care. It doesn’t create a national health care provider. Maybe they mean “socialism” in the sense of modern European socialism which places more emphasis on the creation of an egalitarian society. Well, Obama is asking people to take the day off work and make sure they vote, and help get out the vote. But I don’t see anything in his proposed policies that would, say, guarantee a minimum income.
Obama is in favor of the Employee Free Choice Act, which might help re-unionize our labor force (which, especially in the manufacturing sector, has declined in the past decades). The folks over at the Corner (National Review) hate that. Oh no! Collective bargaining! Organization! God forbid the government help factory workers protect themselves and their jobs, so they are treated like the asset to our nation they clearly are. The next time I hear a Republican railing on and on about how the ‘elitist’ Democrats don’t care about the little guy, I’m going to puke.
Or, and I’m just going to throw this out there, maybe Obama’s not a socialist. Maybe he’s just a liberal, and that word just doesn’t have the negative connotation that it did back in ‘04 and ‘00. The “terrorist sympathizer” label ain’t stickin’, and it’s difficult to try race-based politics these days, though the Republicans like to beat around the bush.
So what some Republicans think we have on our hands is a communist socialist non-American Muslim wrong-kind-of-Christian athiest terrorist sympathizer foreign-policy-wimp who is too much of a hawk when it comes to fighting terrorism and who has no record to speak of. Oh, except they think he has a record of being a communist socialist non-American Muslim wrong-kind-of-Christian athiest terrorist sympathizer foreign-policy-wimp who is too much of a hawk when it comes to fighting terrorism. But he has no record.
Have I got that right? You guys sound rather conflicted. Can you narrow it down to the one or two false story lines that won’t flatly contradict one another? Because then you might be more effective. Still wrong, but more effective.
Until next time.
This is written by Birmingham Weekly contributing editor Mark Kelly, and posted to the blog by me. -Madison
Obama-Biden 375, McCain-Palin 163
Mercifully, time is running out on John McCain. Having mortgaged his name and reputation to an enterprise that has perpetrated one of the vilest and most vacuous Presidential campaigns in a long and storied history of such, the man once revered for his willingness to talk straight has allowed himself to be reduced to reliance on empty rhetoric and base invective. Worse, he has stood by as others associated with his campaign - up to and including his running mate - have engaged in or encouraged naked appeals to those old right-wing standbys, paranoia and prejudice.
But that will end on Nov. 4, at least insofar as the McCain campaign is concerned (I add this because during the last week or so leading up to Election Day, the house organs of Republican dogma - Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, various and sundry newspaper columnists, television commentators, national bloggers, televangelists and other party intelligentsia and operatives - clearly have given up on McCain and shifted the thrust of their efforts to prematurely undermining an Obama administration). Sometime during that evening - between 9:30 and 10:30 p.m. is a good guess - Barack Hussein Obama will, barring an unparalleled political miracle, surpass the 270 electoral votes needed to become the 44th President of the United States.
Thinking about the disappointing way McCain has squandered the opportunity to live up to his once-undisputed image as a different kind of Republican puts me in mind of the single funniest line I have heard during this campaign. Discussing some of the more scurrilous aspects of the Internet “whisper” assault that has been waged against Obama, my friend Greg Womble wryly summed up the growing disaffection with the Republican candidate among independent voters (as well, I would bet, a good number of moderate members of his own party).
“Even if Obama is the Antichrist,” Greg said, “he’s still better than McCain.”
More later about this week’s projected total of 375 electoral votes for Obama - as derived from rolling poll averages tracked on a state-by-state basis - but in my mind, that number probably is somewhat high. On the other hand, cumulative numbers (i.e., established trends) rarely lie, and the math in nearly every state that remains conceivably in play continues to favor the Democrat. Among the most notable points of this week’s analysis:
Our final numbers also move Maine (4 votes), Michigan (17) and New Jersey (15) from probable to strong Obama. In addition, Obama has added significantly to his leads in the tossup state of North Carolina (15), as well as in two longtime tossups that moved into the leaning Obama column last week, Colorado (9) and Virginia (13).
In a similar vein, Obama remains competitive in a slew of other traditional Republican strongholds. Georgia (15 votes), strong McCain a month ago and probable for the past three weeks, drops to leaning McCain in our final tally. North Dakota (3) remains a tossup for the second straight week, while neighboring South Dakota (3) drops this week from strong to probable McCain. In one of the most telling signs of the campaign’s probable outcome, Obama has drawn to within eight points in McCain’s home state of Arizona (10) - enough to change its status from strong to probable McCain.
McCain also has inched closer to Obama in the tossup states of Florida (27 votes), Missouri (11) and Nevada (5), though it certainly remains to be seen whether he can win any or all of them. Indeed, the problem is, if McCain can’t pull off huge upsets in Pennsylvania and Iowa, he not only must win all seven tossup states - he currently leads only two - but also steal three states where his poll numbers continue to slip - Colorado, Ohio and Virginia - from the Obama column.
As for vote totals minus tossups, Obama’s lead is 306-157. That’s up from 286-155 last week, and underscores the point that if Obama simply holds his leads this Tuesday in states where he currently is ahead, he will carry the Electoral College by a substantial margin, and perhaps by a landslide.
In this week’s simulated election - totals based on poll averages, voting history, and any key statewide races in each state - Obama wins 337-201. As for my own prediction, I concur exactly with that total, as I’m guessing that McCain will end up carrying Florida and Indiana, accounting for the 38 fewer votes for Obama than in this week’s projection based on poll averages alone.
Mark Kelly is a contributing editor to the Birmingham Weekly. Write to editor@bhamweekly.com.
My serious advice for you is to take 30 minutes and read this Robert Draper article (which will appear in the NYTimes Magazine on Sunday) today. In my opinion, it’s the best piece of long-form journalism so far in this race (though there was that great piece about the collapse of the Clinton campaign…), and it really gives you an insight into the McCain campaign. Lots of shared drinks in hotel bars, it’s beautiful. It tells you how we’ve gotten where we are in this race.
I’d like to see a similar piece on Obama soon.
Since I botched this post (by posting at 1 am this morning) and most of you have probably already read it, I will simply put up some links for today:
Palin doesn’t know what the Vice President does…even after more than 6 weeks of campaigning to be one. She’s less of a Sunday morning talk show politician, and more of a Saturday Night Live politician.
Michelle Bachmann, who begged the media to investigate “anti-American” members of Congress (i.e. Democrats) isn’t doing so well in the polls anymore, and her opponent raised over a million dollars since she advocated for neo-McCarthyism.
Chuck Norris on the campaign. Believe it or not, he’s a conservative.
McCain sounds a bit like Mondale.
Until then, check out yesterday’s post and don’t forget to pick up a fresh copy of the Weekly, on the streets today. And register to vote!
Of course the big story today is Colin Powell’s ringing endorsement of Barack Obama for President, but you can find info on that at any of the major news sites. It was a strong endorsement, I think, though I still hold a grudge regarding Powell’s appearance before the UN; an appearance that helped convince the world and the American public that Iraq was an imminent threat.
There’s a bit of pushback in the media on this ACORN story, as DailyKos details, and I think it’s with good reason. I’ve made my feelings about ACORN clear on this blog, but I’m starting to believe that there’s more to this story. I think that the fraud, in this case, is against ACORN, and the blood is on the hands of not just the right-wing blogosphere, FOXNews, and McCain, but also on the hands of the Bush Administration. It seems to me that the idea is to delegitimize this election, which Obama will likely win, and therefore to make his win seem undeserved.
Part of it because Bush’s Department of Justice (which, under Alberto Gonzales, fired US Attorneys because they couldn’t find voter fraud to prosecute) has leaked the fact that they’re investigating ACORN. As Josh Marshall notes, “leaking word of such an investigation (possibly starting the investigation at all) most likely violates DOJ guidelines about DOJ/FBI actions which can end up interfering with or manipulating an election.”
Continuing, he says,
But, remember, this is right out of the book of the Bush Justice Department’s efforts to assist in GOP voter suppression efforts in the 2004 and 2006 elections (part and parcel of the US Attorney firing story). This is the same scam US Attorney firing player Bradley Schlozman got in trouble for pulling with ACORN just before the 2006 election. And before he got canned, Gonzales helped revise and soften the departmental prohibition on DOJ announcements, thus making it easier to play these kinds of games.
David Iglesias, the posterboy for fired US Attorneys, says re: DOJ leaks:
“I’m astounded that this issue is being trotted out again. Based on what I saw in 2004 and 2006, it’s a scare tactic.”
Isn’t it questionable why the DOJ, which has been pressured to find and prosecute voter fraud but can’t, is leaking their investigation weeks before the election? There are questions about ACORN, granted, but the attack on them is coming from every branch of the right. And I can’t find any reason to be that terrified of them. At least they’re not switching voter’s party registrations. ACORN has a few bad apples, but they’ve registered more than a million voters. If a couple thousand turn out to be bad, I’d say that’s an acceptable margin of error, being that ACORN flags those bad registrations and “Donald Duck” and “Mickey Mouse” aren’t eligible to vote anyway. Because they don’t exist, they don’t have social security numbers, and they can’t show any ID.
To me, the attack on ACORN is a systematic attempt to discourage people from voting and make it easier for people on the right to question the validity of the 2008 Presidential Election, all the while attacking the Dems for registering poor people and minorities. They’re already doing it, as in this robocall from the Ohio Republican Party. The US Supreme Court isn’t falling for it; they sided with Ohio’s Secretary of State recently in that dispute.
In other news, the kind of vile sewage that people at McCain/Palin rallies have been spewing in recent weeks has spilled over into attacks on ACORN employees and offices, as Alabama Moderate notes.
That leaves me, like Wade Kwon, find myself wishing for a better time.
Don’t forget that, like every Wednesday, Birmingham Weekly columnist Kyle Whitmire will be on WBHM (90.3 FM) at 4:30 pm.
Ten words that have lost meaning during the course of this election (due to overuse, misuse, or other mangled usage from the press or campaigns in the spin cycle):
1) Vet (as in “vetting,” not “veteran”)
2) Taking the gloves off
3) Experience
4) Honorable
5) ACORN
6) Bradley effect
7) POW
8) Debate moderator
9) Super Tuesday
10) Conservatism
The final presidential candidate debate between John “Change” McCain and Barack “Change” Obama is at 8 pm tonight, and you can find it on the channels you always find it. If you’re interested in a more interactive experience, head to Matthews Bar & Grill, Bottletree, Fox & Hound, or any number of other venues and watch the debate there. And if you’re a Democrat, don’t keep your mouth shut but remember this state is tilted 27 points towards McCain, more than almost any other state (Utah is up there), so you might be outnumbered. But that’s sort of the fun part, anyway…
What does McCain have to do tonight? I have no clue what he can do. Conservative commentators are jumping ship (here is a round-up of who has walked the plank from Jerry Weissman, this is funny: Andrew Sullivan calls the right’s reaction a “circular firing squad“) faster than the experienced McCain can pick Sarah Palin. A poll yesterday showed a 14-point lead for Obama (another one today has McCain under 40%). And even Colin Powell might endorse Obama soon. And Obama’s totally ready for any Ayers-related attacks. But here’s what folks are saying:
CNN: McCain must talk economics
The Corner @ National Review Online: McCain should “throw Obama off his game” by saying “So what if I’m erotic in a crisis” (???)
HuffPo: Drop Sarah Palin
ALModerate has a round-up as well.
And what does Obama have to do? Just continue to be as cool as he always is (winning the steady hand and judgment argument). Here’s a beautiful demonstration of how Obama is cool (hattip to Birmingham Blues): A woman points out a spider on Obama’s shirt, and he calmly brushes it away while still talking (video below).
In other national news, it’s kind of chilling to me to get confirmation that the White House explicitly endorsed torture.
And John Leo at HuffPo scathingly attacks those (like myself) who have gone overboard on the “hate speech” at McCain/Palin rallies in this piece, “The Hate Rally That Wasn’t“.
UPDATE: McCain, via Ezra Klein, releases tape of debate practice! Video below (hat tip to TPM)!
Obama and the Spider: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download McCain debate practice: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download
