The second approach is more sensible.
Having experienced the past year in all its recessional glory, we are a little too close, historically speaking, to evaluate it with any precision. Far better to make foolish predictions about things we can know nothing about than to write foolishly about that we have seen with our own eyes.
Prognostications offer a double bonus for the writer beset by holiday celebrations, in that he can make any old claim concerning the shapes of things to come with assurance that no one, 12 months hence, will call him out on it. (On the other hand, if I’d told you a year ago at this time that, say, Lady Gaga would have made a bigger hit with her dress of meat than her recordings, you can bet I’d be ballyhooing it now, but I didn’t, so I’m not.)
Jeane Dixon, the late astrologist for dogs as well as humans, was my role model. Every year’s end in Parade magazine she would compile an outrageous list of predictions— World war will erupt in 1958! Cancer will be cured in 1967! Peace on Earth by 2000!—with a single-digit accuracy rate, yet every year she was invited back to repeat the process, thus, in a way, foreshadowing the Fox News Channel.
In past years, I have actually used scientific methods to predict the price of gas on Memorial Day, the possibility of measurable snowfall during the winter and the winner of the Sprint Cup, falling miserably short on every occasion, save when I wrote in Jimmie Johnson’s name.
Then, this year, I joined the rest of mankind in marveling at the greatest, most infallible forecaster of our lifetime, namely, Paul the octopus. From his tank in Sea Life Oberhausen, the tentacled soothsayer correctly predicted the outcome of every German match as well as the final in this year’s World Cup competition, simply by picking mussels out of a box. Sadly, he succumbed in October at the age of two-and-a-half before Paul Finebaum could give him a regular weekly spot, replacing Danny Sheridan.
Paul—the octopus, not the Finebaum— gave me hope that I could similarly use random chance to improve my GPA (Goofy Prognostication Average), so I decided this year to entrust the fate of the planet to one of the favorite psychic implements of my youth: the Magic 8-Ball.
Scoff if you dare. The Magic 8-Ball has been in our family since the days when it was still made of glass, and it has a peerless track record even now for gauging the chances of rain on any given day. Following the success of Transformers, the oracular orb is slated to star in its own movie next year, which oneups Jeane Dixon right there. As for the skeptics who carp that there are only 20 possible answers on the 8-Ball, there are only 78 cards in a tarot deck and nobody’s complaining.
So let us throw caution to the wind and immerse ourselves in the mysterious blue dye wherein all the answers to the questions of tomorrow are contained. The following responses are transcribed exactly as Magic 8-Ball stated them:
Q: Will Jefferson County declare bankruptcy this year?
A: My reply is No.
Q: Will the price of gas Memorial Day be over $2.50 a gallon?
A: Don’t count on it.
Q: Will Bank of America be the target of the next Wikileaks document dump?
A: Ask again later.
Q: Is Sarah Palin going to declare her candidacy later this year?
A: My reply is No.
Q: Would I get a different response from Sarah Palin’s 8-Ball?
A: My reply is No.
Q: Just double-checking. By the way, what about that Bank of America thing?
A: Better not tell you now.
Q: Really. Have the same shadowy forces attempting to silence Julian Assange somehow gotten to you?
A: Outlook hazy.
Q: This is completely unacceptable. May I speak to your supervisor?
A: Outlook not so good.
Q: Fine, then. On to more important matters. Is Cam Newton one-and-done after the BCS championship?
A: Yes.
Q: Will a hurricane affect Mobile Bay this summer?
A: Yes.
Q: Yet you don’t want to comment on the Bank of America one way or another?
A: My sources say No.
Q: Will True Grit be shut out by the Academy Awards voters?
A: My sources say No.
Q: Speaking of great cinema, would you want Jack Black to play you in The Magic 8- Ball Movie?
A: Very doubtful.
Q: Is Paul Hubbert going to stick with the AEA after the power shift in the Alabama legislature?
A: Most likely.
Q: Do we get to see New Orleans in the Super Bowl again this year?
A: Concentrate and ask again.
Q: [Sigh] Okay. [There is a long pause, then—] A: Signs point to Yes.
Q: Wow. Didn’t see that coming. Will Russ Feingold explore a run against President Obama in 2012?
A: Cannot predict now.
Q: Fair enough. Well, thanks for your time. Speaking of time, is there any chance that this is the last time a columnist will fall back on this hoary talking-to-an-8-Ball gimmick in lieu of using his own imagination?
A: Very doubtful.
Courtney Haden is a Birmingham Weekly columnist. Write to courtney@bhamweekly.com.
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